Event Summary:
Dr. John Kirton
Stephen Harper’s Foreign Policy Success
28 November, 2006
Gowling Lafleur Henderson LLP
Event Moderated by: Keith Martin, President, CIIA (Toronto)
Summary by: Laura Sunderland (Senior Researcher, G8 Research Group)
On November 28, 2006, the Canadian Institute of International Affairs Toronto Branch held an event entitled “Stephen Harper’s Foreign Policy Success.” Dr. John Kirton, Associate Professor of Political Science and Director of the G8 Research Group at the University of Toronto and author of Canadian Foreign Policy in a Changing World (Thomson Nelson, 2007), presented his analysis of Stephen Harper’s foreign policy success during his first year as Prime Minister of Canada to a diverse audience of academics, professionals and students.
Dr. Kirton began his discussion by presenting three competing schools of thought on Harper’s foreign policy performance to date. The first school sees a “restrained retreat to America,” where Harper focuses on developing better relations with the United States, the second school sees “ignorant, incompetent isolationism,” where Harper focuses on his five domestic priorities and ignores international relations, and the third school sees Harper as a “rational self confident calculator” who is a strategist capable of excelling in both the foreign and domestic arenas.
Dr. Kirton, whose presentation adhered to the “rational self confident calculator” school, suggested that Harper’s performance should be assessed by examining three criteria: (1) Harper’s foreign policy performance compared with Joe Clark’s performance, who headed a comparable Conservative minority government as a Prime Minister from Alberta with little interest in international affairs, no ministerial experience, and an inexperienced parliament; (2) Harper’s success in delivering his foreign policy promises compared with his predecessors; and (3) Harper’s ability to shape world order. Based on these criteria, Dr. Kirton argued that Harper’s foreign policy has been a “striking success.”
On the first criterion, Dr. Kirton suggested that Harper has avoided disasters similar to those that drove Joe Clark from office, using examples such as crises in the Middle East, refugee situations, the threat of nuclear proliferation and high energy prices. Dr. Kirton argued that Harper has been able to learn from Clark’s “finest traditions” of foreign policy, while also avoiding the pitfalls that Clark’s government did not. In terms of Canada-US relations, Harper has had success in settling the softwood lumber dispute, stopping the American military exercises in the Great Lakes, and keeping the Alaska National Wildlife Reserve closed.
On the second criterion, Dr. Kirton argued that Harper has been consistent and successful both in terms of publicizing his foreign policy promises through his many speeches, his Conservative Party platform, his victory address and Throne Speech, and subsequently delivering on those promises. Dr. Kirton cited examples of Harper promising leadership for democratic development, new spending on defence and development, portraying the US as Canada’s adversary, and giving more attention to the Group of Eight (G8) and Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development as international institutions that Canadians prefer. Dr. Kirton went on to discuss the impact of Harper’s declaration of Canadian sovereignty in the Arctic, boldly being the first country after Israel to cut aid to the new Hamas government, extending Canada’s military presence in Afghanistan to 2009, securing a formal role for Quebec on the Canadian permanent delegation to UNESCO, and leading on energy security and the Middle East war at the G8 Summit in St. Petersburg.
On the third criterion, Dr. Kirton argued that while it is too soon to declare whether or not Harper’s foreign policy decisions are shaping world order, Harper has shown that Canada has the capacity to shape world order in the future by demonstrating leadership at the G8 Summit, la Francophonie, and on the Middle East, and by criticizing the Chinese human rights record at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation leaders’ meeting in November, 2006. Dr. Kirton stated that the next test for Harper is Afghanistan, where only time will tell if Canadian and Dutch forces will secure much needed reinforcement from NATO allies. Dr. Kirton also suggested that the future success or failure of the Canadian-pioneered Responsibility to Protect (R2P) principle, the ability to curb greenhouse gas emissions, and getting free trade agreements with India and Japan will add more to our understanding of Harper’s legacy.
Dr. Kirton concluded by stating that true foreign policy success for Harper can only be secured if he leaves office with Canadian national unity intact, an American acceptance of Canada’s claim to the Arctic, a controlled climate and victory in Afghanistan, but that, based on the three criteria for success, Harper is off to a good start.
Questions from the audience:
Regarding Harper’s position on China, Dr. Kirton suggested that his criticisms of China’s human rights record is normal for a Conservative prime minister, who tend to tilt toward human rights rather than trade issues. In terms of the economic costs to criticizing China, Dr. Kirton stated that Harper is engaged in a balanced strategy—China requested the meeting because they know they need Canadian natural resources. Therefore, in the end, China will be forced to adjust to Canada’s demands. Dr. Kirton said that the meeting could have been managed better, but that the Chinese took it knowing they would be lectured.
Regarding Harper’s relationship with Foreign Minister Peter MacKay, Dr. Kirton suggested that their relationship is comparatively good. Harper is relying on MacKay more than nay other member of his small cabinet, MacKay clearly has no restraints on his ability to speak openly on his own, and on the whole, MacKay is saying things that are consistent with where Harper’s heart are soul are. Dr. Kirton likened the relationship to that of Clark and Mulroney, which really developed after 9 months. Dr. Kirton also highlighted the symbolic importance of US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice’s visit to Atlantic Canada on the anniversary of September 11, which showed that the US knows they need Canada.
Regarding the United Nations, Dr. Kirton pointed to the fact that the prime minister’s most scarce resource is his time and where it is spent—so it is significant that Harper chose to make a speech to the United Nations General Assembly, which is not a routine thing for Canadian prime ministers to do. In his speech, Harper highlighted R2P and Darfur.
Regarding Harper’s environmental policy, Dr. Kirton responded that coming into office nobody expected Harper to do more on Kyoto, so the expectation was low to begin with, and the standard of success for a minority government is to “do enough.” Canada has remained ratified with Kyoto, which was a Charest decision. Dr. Kirton suggested that Harper can perhaps begin to do more on climate change at the G8 summit in Germany in 2007.
Regarding Harper’s relationship with Foreign Affairs Canada, Dr. Kirton stated that Harper listens to the old Progressive Conservatives, rather than current officials, so rather than seeing Harper as ignoring the Foreign Service, it is more accurate to discuss which foreign service officials he listens to. Harper respects career officials, and as a result he has not engaged in “purges or patronages.” Harper is reuniting Foreign Affairs and International trade, but it is a difficult process without extra funding.
Regarding tackling the situations in Sudan and Sri Lanka, Dr. Kirton said that he is more confident about success in Sudan than Sri Lanka. Harper learns about foreign policy while he travels the world, based on where he goes and who he meets—and he has not ventured over there yet, so he is not experience with that part of the world.
Regarding what is next for Harper, Dr. Kirton suggested hat he needs to focus on getting more seats in Quebec, but that Harper has not yet developed a strategy that understands how globalization hits the ground. Harper thought that he could get support in Quebec by doing the UNESCO deal, but he is now learning that the situation is more complex than in 1986. Harper will be unable to win more Canadian hearts and votes if he does not start progressing on climate change. The prime minister has not yet internalized the importance of the issue to Canadians, and he should spend more time with Charest. Dr. Kirton suggested that Harper could succeed in getting support from Quebec if he is able to “get climate change right.”
Regarding the importance of domestic policy to Canadians, Dr. Kirton responded that occasionally foreign policy matters most to Canadians at the polls. He discussed cases of Canadian elections being dominated by foreign policy in 1956 because of Suez and 1988 because of free trade. Dr. Kirton stated that Harper is vulnerable on Afghanistan, but that if he becomes better at communicating his foreign policy, he could succeed. For example, when President Karzai came to Ottawa to thank Canadians for their engagement in Afghanistan, the public opinion polls became more positive on the issue. Dr. Kirton suggested that a major challenge is that Canada has not been to war in 40 years, so it is difficult to articulate the rationale to the public—Harper should focus on the goal of educating young girls in Afghanistan and promoting multiculturalism. Dr. Kirton stated that it is significant that Afghanistan is the first big war in a long time with a body count, and it is also the first time that Canada might actually lose.
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