Event Summary:
Dr. Fraser Cameron
Director, EU-Russia Institute
addressing
North America, the EU and Russia: the End of Illusions?
Wednesday, 16 May, 2007
At the Head Office of CIIA
Summary by
Pawel Osiej, Research Assistant, CIIA
On Wednesday 16 May 2007, the Canadian Institute of International Affairs (CIIA) in collaboration with the Canada Eurasia Russia Business Association (CERBA) hosted Dr. Fraser Cameron, the Director of the EU-Russia Centre in Brussels and one of the foremost experts on international relations and European foreign policy.
Dr. Cameron talked about North American, EU and Russia relations in front of an opinionated and boisterous Toronto audience with representatives from the government, business and academic communities. His talk, which coincided with the 2007 EU-Russia Summit in Samara, focused on current EU, Russian and US issues in need of resolution: namely, a new strategic agreement between Europe and Russia, which according to Dr. Cameron, is unlikely to occur in the foreseeable future; negotiations to end the standing disputes between Russia and new EU member states, especially Poland and the Baltic states; and the US’ Middle East policy. And although the relations between the US and Europe on one side and Russia on the other have not been this chilly since the fall of the Soviet Union, Dr. Cameron assured the audience that this is not the beginning of a new Cold War.
Condoleezza Rice’s recent visit to Moscow and subsequent meeting with President Putin was an obvious attempt by the White House to improve relations, keep channels open, and give the impression of strong ties between the two former nuclear adversaries. However, according to Dr. Cameron, US-Russia relations will not change significantly as long as President Bush remains in the White House. The US’ intention to establish missile defence installations in Eastern Europe and its Middle East policies will remain the major stumbling block for a while.
The future of EU-Russia relations is less obvious. France, Germany, and the UK are undoubtedly the New Troika in Europe. Sarkozy, Merkel and soon-to-be British PM Brown are very pragmatic and want to get things done. It was no coincidence that Nicolas Sarkozy’s first two official visits as the President of France, were to Berlin and Brussels. They are all quite different from their predecessors, and will undoubtedly take a different stance towards Russia. It is hard to imagine Angela Merkel working for Gazprom after her term as the Chancellor. In contrast to more pragmatic, ‘old’ members of the EU who consider the ‘big picture’ in their relations with Russia, some ‘new’ member-states feel they have to be tough with Russia in order to find their niche both within the EU and beyond.
According to Dr. Cameron, Russia is looking to have more global influence but this does not mean it is interested in a new round of an arms race at this time. Russians have become too accustomed to open travel, better schooling abroad and western lifestyles to slip back behind a new iron curtain. The emphasis in Moscow nowadays is placed on developing the Russian economy and using its economic prowess to achieve strategic objectives (currently, more than 60% of Russian trade is with the EU). In pursuit of these goals, Russia welcomes European investments and involvement in reducing energy waste of energy during its extraction and transportation, the development of new infrastructure projects to replace crumbling Soviet-era installations and many other projects. Dr. Cameron reiterated that this has always been Russia’s problem - so much potential yet so much is wasted and misused. At the same time, Western investors need assurances that the rule of law will be strengthened in Russia. In order to invest more, they want a strong, but democratic Russia, one that supports the development of civil society groups and conditions favourable to foreign direct investment. In this sense, the recent slippage toward more authoritarian trends in the Kremlin worries many Western observers. Dr. Cameron believes that only after democracy strengthens in Russia will the public and governments’ opinions in the West begin to change.
At the same time, Russia views Western involvement in its former sphere of influence with suspicion and has not forgotten European support for the ‘colour revolutions’ that took place over the last few years. The long-term security of energy supplies from Russia to Europe remains both an area of cooperation and confrontation; Russia needs to sell, Europe needs to buy - all depends on the final terms of agreement.
However, despite all of the talk of gloom and doom, there are some areas in which both Russia and the EU see eye-to-eye. Nuclear proliferation is definitely one subject on which there is agreement from both sides of the Atlantic. As far as the Middle East is concerned, Russia agrees with the EU proposal on the solution to peace in the region, which advocates for a more balanced approach in the Israeli-Palestinian dialogue. According to Dr. Cameron, 2007 is shaping up to be a very important year for EU-Russian relations because of the new European Troika. Russia, as always, will sit and wait for things to develop in order to pick up allies and neutralize enemies, and play various EU members off one another in order to create a more favourable situation for itself.
As far as Canada is concerned, Dr. Cameron believes it will forge its own relationship with both Russia and the EU. Today, however, Canada is definitely closer to the EU than to the US in its approach to dealing with Russia. Canada will undoubtedly continue using diplomacy and open partnership with its allies to forge its foreign policy. Unfortunately, one area of concern according to Dr. Cameron, is that there is too little knowledge of the EU in Canada and in North America for that matter.
In closing, Dr. Cameron got a chuckle out of the crowd when he stated plain and simple: “Russia has an image problem; all the political assassinations do not help that image.” He believes that Russia simply needs a new PR person at the Kremlin.
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