The Canadian International Council and McMillan, present

A New World Order?
The implications of the U.S. and Canadian elections on Canadian Foreign Policy

Expert Panel:
Pamela Wallin O.C., S.O.M.
Hugh Segal C.M. (The Honourrable)
Timothy Murphy

Moderated by:
Keith Martin - President, Canadian International Council (Toronto Branch)

Summary by:
Keith Martin

November 20, 2008

On 20 November, 2008 the Canadian International Council’s Toronto Branch, in partnership with Head Office and leading Canadian law firm mcmillan, held a panel discussion on the implications of the recent Canadian and U.S. elections. In attendance were Pamela Wallin, former journalist and Canadian Consul General in New York City, Hugh Segal the Senator and former Chief of Staff to Prime Minister Mulroney, and Tim Murphy the former Chief of Staff to Prime Minister Martin.

Senator Segal noted that while many have suggested that Prime Minister Harper now faces an ideological divide with incoming President Obama, this analysis misses the fundamentally different political dynamics in the two countries. Senator Segal noted that Prime Minister Harper is more liberal than the incoming U.S. President on abortion, capital punishment, gay rights, and medicare. Comparing their respective ideologies is misleading in the absence of context. Such uninformed analysis leads, the Senator noted, to highly erroneous conclusions.

Pamela Wallin reminded those in attendance that at the best of times much U.S. policy is guided by domestic realities, and that these are not the best of times. With some talking of a depression in the United States, vigorously protecting short-term U.S. interests will be front and centre for U.S. politicians, especially in the House of Representatives. The principal challenge for Prime Minister Harper will be to avoid harmful Congressionally-mandated trade barriers to Canadian exports. The risks raised by the current economic environment in the U.S. are potentially perilous for Canada, and as the ongoing softwood lumber fight has shown, trade agreements provide a buffer but cannot completely mitigate against a highly litigious and aggressive U.S. approach.

Tim Murphy advised against a parochial Canadians approach that over-emphasizes the impact Canada will have on the U.S. We need to manage the relationship at all levels, and recognize that we will not be top of mind for the new administration. One of the many challenges we will face is our military engagement in Afghanistan as the United States under President Obama looks to divert resources from Iraq to the Afghani theatre. Under current timetables, we are planning to leave Afghanistan just as the U.S. fully commits to that struggle. On all of these issues, sophistication will need to supplant bombast.

The panelists engaged in spirited discussion including a dynamic question and answer period which highlighted enduring realities of the Canadian – United States relationship: the profound economic importance of the United States to Canada, the existential influence that U.S. Presidents have on the Canadian political scene, and the painful but overwhelming reality that the relationship is highly asymmetrical, with the Canadian influence in the United States occasional, fleeting, and peripheral. In that context, it was clear that notwithstanding the unique circumstances that presented themselves today, from a broader perspective the present challenges were consistent with those that have burdened us for a century, and we continue to face the conundrum that while we must seize opportunities to have impact on our neighbours to the South, as often as not we may be best off flying under the radar.

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